Crossover trend at a fixed load usually moves first. Hydrogen content in the oxygen stream, compared at a comparable operating point over weeks, is the most direct available observation of barrier condition, and it responds before the electrical signature does.
Cell voltage moves second and ambiguously. A thinner membrane has lower ohmic resistance, so the voltage contribution from that term falls, while any loss of catalyst activity pushes it up. The net can be flat while both are changing, which is why a single voltage reading is a weak instrument here.
The order is itself diagnostic. Crossover rising while cell voltage holds or falls slightly points towards the barrier. Cell voltage rising while crossover holds points elsewhere, usually towards catalyst or transport. Both rising together suggests more than one mechanism, which is common late in life.
Turndown is the operational symptom that arrives before either is alarming. As baseline crossover rises, the load at which the hydrogen fraction in the oxygen stream reaches its safety margin moves upward, and the plant quietly loses low-load hours. That shows up in the production record before it shows up in a condition report.